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Early 2011 MLB Postseason Projection Has Rockies Winning NL West

Good news, everyone! The Colorado Rockies are projected to win the NL West. Well, if you believe Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA-based postseason odds, that is. Using one million simulations, the Rockies come out on top in the NL West with an average of 87.1 wins this season.

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The simulation breaks it down a bit further, offering percentages of how the teams make the playoffs. With an overall of 47.5 percent of making the playoffs, the Rockies win the NL West 36.92 percent of the time and the Wild Card 10.62 percent of the time.

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For the rest of the NL West, the defending World Series champion San Francisco Giants finish third, right behind the Wild Card-winning Los Angeles Dodgers. The San Diego Padres, who were a surprising team until collapsing late in the season, return to being a .500 team.

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Still, projections this early are unable to see how things shake out during Spring Training (obviously). Nice to see these projections now, but it'll be even better when it happens at the end of the season.

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h/t to Rob Neyer