Baseball players make the Hall of Fame ballot five years after retire from the game and then remain on the ballot for 15 years or until the receive under five percent of the vote. For guys who stick around for almost the entire term of eligibility, one would figure that as long as they keep a high percentage of votes throughout the process that they will eventually break through the 75 percent barrier.
For instance, we have Bert Blyleven, Dale Murphy and Dave Parker in their 14th, 13th and 15th years of eligibility, respectively. Blyleven received 74.2 percent in 2010, up from 62.7 in 2009. He should be a lock for induction this season. But the other two will likely be nowhere close to making the Hall of Fame this year, or in Murphy's case, this season and the next two. Murphy received 11.5 percent and 11.7 percent over the last two season, making it unlikely for him to gain that much in the voting this year. Parker received 15.0 percent and 15.2 percent
The Hardball Times is predicting that Blyleven and second-year eligible Roberto Alomar will receive 80 percent and 87 percent of the vote, respectively. Murphy and Parker receive slightly better results this year, but still far away from induction. Barry Larkin remains on the cusp of the Hall of Fame and will eventually garner enough votes to be in Cooperstown.
The Rockies' Larry Walker appears on 14 percent of the ballot, keeping him alive for another year. It could be a long wait for Walker to make it to the Hall of Fame.