According to Vegas, he's worth at least half a win. Even before the injury, I would be willing to bet that most of the money was coming in under that total.â†µ
Now there's proof. Entering training camp, the Hilton Sports Book ,the largest in Las Vegas, placed the Broncos' over/under season win total at 7 1/2. In recent days, that win total slipped to 7.â†µ
Thinking about the effect that Dumervil's loss had on the win total got me to thinking about how losing a star player in other sports could change a win total. How much would you expect a baseball team's win/loss total to change if they lost their best hitter or pitcher prior to the season? 3 games? 5 games? 10 games? What about about a NBA team or NHL team? You have to think that you would see the largest swing for an NBA team. Lose Melo? At least a 10 game drop, maybe even 20. When you're looking at an 82 game season that's quite a large percentage of the season.â†µ
Football is a little bit different because of the many positions and the quality depth that many teams have, but there are a few key positions on offense and defense that can move the needle if someone is out. Here's a good example, the New York Jets are currently sitting at 9.5 wins. How much (if at all) do you think Darrelle Revis' decision to hold out or rejoin the team will change that number?