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Wins And Losses Overrated, But Totally Deserved Last Night

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Jack Moore of FanGraphs.com chimes in with his assessment of last night's Rockies victory, or more accurately Ryan Franklin's loss:

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Pitcher wins and losses are poor statistics to use when evaluating pitchers, as many readers here surely know. Wins and losses give full credit to the pitcher for the performance, or lack thereof, of the whole team. [...]

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In Colorado last night, however, the loss was completely deserved – or at least 99% deserved. Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin entered the ninth inning with one out and the bases loaded but a 9-4 lead. Despite the threat of runners on base, the leading team will win this game 99% of the time – even a home run leaves the trailing team with a mere 5.5% chance of winning the game.

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Just think about that for a moment. Last night's game should have been a guaranteed victory for the Cardinals, but it wasn't. Of course, one should also question why Tony La Russa kept Franklin in as long as he did. To visually see what that loss looks like, visit the link and check out the WPA graph. It's amazing--if you're a Rockies fan.

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