The 2012 NBA Draft is rapidly approaching, and Weber State point guard Damian Lillard has emerged as a clear top-10 draft pick. He impressed NBA scouts and general managers at the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago and during individual team workouts by showing great shooting range and solid quickness, but he hasn't made a huge impression everywhere. John Hollinger's Draft Rater on ESPN is designed to predict the Player Efficiency Rating (PER) for the rookie class each year -- last season the model nailed prospects like Kyrie Irving and Kawhi Leonard, but failed on Jan Vesely and Jimmer Fredette -- and Lillard is rated as a "potential perimeter bust."
His predicted PER is a paltry 9.75, ranking him behind players like Tyshawn Taylor, Austin Rivers, Marquis Teague and Tony Wroten. In essence, Hollinger's draft rater believes Lillard should not be drafted in the top-10, and that he really belongs somewhere in the back end of the first-round.