How far can the Northern Colorado Bears go in the 2011 NCAA Tournament bracket? While most (if any) human projections won't have the Bears making it past the San Diego St. Aztecs, if the tournament was played enough times the Bears would have a chance to make it past the Aztecs and possibly farther.â†µ
That's exactly what Basketball Reference did with 10,000 simulations of this year's March Madness bracket. In 697 simulations, the Bears beat the Aztecs to advance to the third round. But their chances only diminish after that. They appear in the Sweet 16 a total of 125 times and then only 18 times in the Elite 8. And a whopping two appearances happen in the Final Four. There are no appearances in the Championship game or winding up as champions. But given the probability of all things, a larger number of simulations would have the Bears winning it all at some point.
Three of the four First Four teams don't even make it into the Elite 8 in any of these simulations. But the biggest problem of all is that the Colorado Buffaloes aren't even in the simulations since the selection committee snubbed them.